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Democrats Super Tuesday predictions – Obama will edge Clinton

By Griffin · February 4th, 2008 · 1 Comment


By now we know that there’s almost no way a Democratic nominee will be chosen on Super Tuesday; the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is just too close.  Obama has all the momentum right now, but it might not be enough to overcome the large institutional advantages and millions of absentee ballots– which were cast as far back as three weeks ago, well before Obama’s national surge– for Clinton.  In primaries that allow independent voters such as Massachusetts and California, or primaries with large numbers of African-American voters such as Alabama and Georgia, Obama will surge late and finish strong.  In closed primaries where only Democrats can vote, or primaries with large numbers of Latino voters (a demographic that Obama waited too long to court) such as New Mexico and Arizona, Clinton will hold her own.

Despite the fact that the race will very likely go on well beyond tomorrow, the media and the campaigns will scramble to declare winners and losers.  As the establishment candidate, a win for Hillary Clinton means winning the popular vote, shutting Obama out on the coasts (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California, etc.), showing strength in red states like Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, and Utah, and showing that her African-American base hasn’t completely abandoned her in states like Georgia, Tennessee, and her home state of Arkansas.  As the insurgent candidate, the bar is slightly lower for Barack Obama.  A win for him means staying within 5 points of the popular vote, taking away one or more coast states (California, New Jersey, and Connecticut are within reach), finishing within what would be a stunning single-digit margin in one of Hillary’s home states of New York or Arkansas, showing electoral strength in the midwest and Rocky Mountain region, and cutting significantly into Clinton’s strongholds of women and Latino voters.  Also, Obama has the potential to score a shocking win in Massachusetts on the strength of endorsements from Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, Gov. Deval Patrick, and the Boston Globe.

The map on February 5th favors Clinton to win the popular vote, with New York and California dwarfing other states in delegates and voters.  But it appears as if Obama’s strategy is to win more states than Clinton, as he has spent the past week campaigning in small delegate states like Idaho and Delaware.  My prediction is that not only will Obama win more states than Clinton (12 to 10), but he’ll keep it close enough in New York and California, and win enough Independent support, to narrowly take the popular vote as well.  Here are my state-by-state predictions.


ALABAMA (primary – 60 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Tuscaloosa News, Alabama New South Coalition, Rep. Artur Davis

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Montgomery Advertiser

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 2

Prediction:
Obama by 5


ALASKA (caucus - 18 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Juneau Empire

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 5


ARIZONA (primary – 67 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
The Arizona Republic, Gov. Janet Napolitano, Rep. Raul Grijalva

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Rep. Ed Pastor

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 6

Prediction:
Clinton by 5


ARKANSAS (primary – 47 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
None

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Gov. Mike Beebe, Sen. Mark Pryor, Rep. Marion Berry, Rep. Vic Snyder, Rep. Mike Ross

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Clinton by 15


CALIFORNIA (primary – 441 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Opinion, San Francisco Chronicle, First Lady Maria Shriver, Rep. George Miller, Rep. Barbara Lee, Rep. Anna Eshoo, Rep. Zoe Lofgren, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Xavier Becerra, Rep. Linda Sanchez


Clinton Key Endorsements:

El Mundo (San Francisco), Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Rep. Mike Thompson, Rep. Doris Matsui, Rep. Lynn Woolsey, Rep. Ellen Tauscher, Rep. Tom Lantos, Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Brad Sherman, Rep. Hilda Solis, Rep. Diane Watson, Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, Rep. Rep. Maxine Waters, Rep. Jane Harman, Rep. Laura Richardson, Rep. Grace Napolitano, Rep. Joe Baca, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Magic Johnson

Latest polls:
Dead even

Prediction:
Clinton by 5


COLORADO (caucus – 71 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Rep. Ed Perlmutter

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Denver Post, Rep. Diane DeGette

Latest polls:
Obama up by 2

Prediction:
Obama by 5


CONNECTICUT (primary – 60 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Rep. John Larson, Rep. Rosa DeLauro, Rep. Chris Murphy

Clinton Key Endorsements:
The Hartford Courant

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 4

Prediction:
Obama by 2


DELAWARE (primary – 23 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
None

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Gov. Ruth Ann Minner

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 2


GEORGIA (primary – 103 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Rep. Sanford Bishop, Rep. Hank Johnson

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Rep. John Lewis, Rep. David Scott, Hall of Famer Hank Aaron

Latest polls:
Obama up by 15

Prediction:
Obama by 20


IDAHO (caucus – 23 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Fmr. Gov. Cecil Andrus

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 10


ILLINOIS (primary – 185 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Chicago Sun Times, Chicago Tribune, Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Sen. Dick Durbin, Rep. Bobby Rush, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., Rep. Luis Gutierrez, Rep. Danny Davis, Rep. Melissa Bean, Rep. Janice Schakowsky, Rep. Jerry Costello, Rep. Phil Hare

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
Obama up by 32

Prediction:
Obama by 35


KANSAS (caucus – 41 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 5


MASSACHUSETTS (primary - 121 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Boston Globe, Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Ted Kennedy, Sen. John Kerry, Rep. Michael Capuano, Rep. William Delahunt

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Rep. Jim McGovern, Rep. Richard Neal, Rep. Barney Frank, Rep. Stephen Lynch

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 14

Prediction:
Clinton by 5


MINNESOTA (primary – 88 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Rep. Betty McCollum, Rep. Keith Ellison, Rep. Jim Oberstar

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 10


MISSOURI (primary – 72 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Sen. Claire McCaskill, Rep. William Clay Jr., Rep. Russ Carnahan

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Kansas City Star, Fmr. Gov. Warren Hearnes, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 2

Prediction:
Obama by 5


NEW JERSEY (primary – 127 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
The Star-Ledger, Rep. Steve Rothman

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Sen. Bob Menendez, Rep. Frank Pallone, Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr., Rep. Donald Payne, Rep. Albio Sires

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 7

Prediction:
Clinton by 10


NEW MEXICO (primary – 38 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Albuquerque Tribune, Santa Fe New Mexican

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Fmr. Gov. Bruce King

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Clinton by 10


NEW YORK (primary – 281 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
New York Post

Clinton Key Endorsements:
New York Times, Newsday, Gov. Eliot Spitzer, Sen. Charles Schumer, Rep. Tim Bishop, Rep. Steve Israel, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Rep. Gary Ackerman, Rep. Gregory Meeks, Rep. Joseph Crowley, Rep. Jerrold Nadler, Rep. Anthony Weiner, Rep. Edolphus Towns, Rep. Yvette Clarke, Rep. Nydia Velazquez, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Rep. Charles Rangel, Rep. Jose Serrano, Rep. Eliot Engel, Rep. Nita Lowey, Rep. John Hall, Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, Rep. Michael McNulty, Rep. Maurice Hinchey, Rep. Michael Arcuri, Rep. Brian Higgins, Rep. Louise Slaughter

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 17

Prediction:
Clinton by 20


NORTH DAKOTA (caucus – 21 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Sen. Kent Conrad

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Fmr. Gov. George Sinner

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 5


OKLAHOMA (primary – 47 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Rep. Earl Pomeroy

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Fmr. Gov. David Walters

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 25

Prediction:
Clinton by 10


TENNESEE (primary – 85 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Rep. Jim Cooper

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
Clinton up by 13

Prediction:
Clinton by 5


UTAH (primary – 29 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
None

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Salt Lake Tribune

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Clinton by 10

Tags: Barack Obama · Democrats · Hillary Clinton


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