Because I’m on an incredible roll this week. Not only did I call the biggest upset in Super Bowl history (including the exact margin of victory), but looking back at my state-by-state Super Tuesday predictions for the Democratic race, of the 22 states in contention yesterday, I correctly predicted the outcome in 20. I missed Utah, and New Mexico is still too close to call, but I nailed the rest, including all three upset wins for Obama in Missouri, Connecticut, and Delaware:
The map on February 5th favors Clinton to win the popular vote, with New York and California dwarfing other states in delegates and voters. But it appears as if Obama’s strategy is to win more states than Clinton, as he has spent the past week campaigning in small delegate states like Idaho and Delaware. My prediction is that not only will Obama win more states than Clinton (12 to 10), but he’ll keep it close enough in New York and California, and win enough Independent support, to narrowly take the popular vote as well.
Clearly, I’ve spent such an obscene amount time observing the Democratic race over the past year that I’ve crossed the thin line from analyst to prophet. The only question now is, how badly do you want to see my NCAA tournament bracket in March?