Over the weekend, Barack Obama built up an incredible amount of momentum by winning all five contests– Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, Washington, and the Virgin Islands– by 19 points or more.  The Clinton campaign characterized those losses afterwards as “expected,” but they had to have been knocked back on their heels by the margins, especially in Maine where Clinton seemed to have the best chance of winning.

Although Obama and Clinton remain essentially tied in the overall delegates, the question now is whether or not Clinton can stop Obama’s weekend momentum before it carries him all the way to the nomination.  Both campaigns are looking ahead to March 4th, when Ohio and Texas hold large delegate primary contests (although the combined delegate total from D.C., Maryland, and Virginia is larger).  And Clinton aides and supporters acknowledged today in the New York Times that if she doesn’t win both Ohio and Texas, her campaign will likely be over.  Therefore, it’s imperative for Clinton that she slow Obama down today in at least one of the three contests, to avoid another landslide sweep from propelling him to victories on March 4th.  Her best chance to do that is in Virginia.

According to campaign officials, Clinton has already conceded the contests in D.C. and Maryland.  For her, those races aren’t about winning, they’re about avoiding the type of blowout that occured in Washington state, where Obama took a staggering two-thirds of the total delegates.  She won’t bother competing and will likely get trounced in many areas– specifically areas with heavy black or affluent white populations– but rather she’ll be looking to concentrate on specific congressional districts where she can pick off a delegate or two to keep the overall score close.  In Virginia, Clinton believes that despite endorsements for Obama by Governor Tim Kaine and Former Governor Douglas Wilder, she can benefit from a less diverse and more downscale population and may be able to edge Obama in the popular vote.

So will Clinton be able to pull off a surprise win today and stop Obama’s momentum?  In a word, no.  The problem for Clinton in Virginia is that it’s an open primary, which means Independents can– and, with John McCain no longer in a competitive contest, will– vote on the Democratic ballot.  It’s a group that she has continued to lose to Obama by wide margins, and Virginia will be no different.  The only real question for Clinton today is, will she be able to keep the margin of loss respectable in any of the three contests?  Again, no.  Obama has led in every major poll of the Potomac Primary contests by a minimum of 15 points, and as we saw in the previous five contests this weekend, he’s beginning to consistently outperform polls, as pollsters have been badly undercounting the groundswell of Independent and black voters in each state.

After today, Clinton’s best chance of holding back the February tsunami that looks poised to overtake her campaign will be some major stumble by Obama, perhaps in a debate (which is why she challenged him to five debates in the next three weeks– she got two).  Other than that, the nomination at this point will be Obama’s to lose.  And after over a year of building a grassroots organization from scratch that has become formidable enough to take on the great Democratic dynasty, it is unlikely that he’ll be stopped now.

Here are my state-by-state predictions of what we can expect from the results tonight:

Obama Key Endorsements:
Mayor Adrian Fenty, Fmr. Mayor Marion Barry

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Washington Blade

Latest polls:
None

Prediction:
Obama by 25 (+6 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
The Baltimore Sun, Rep. Albert Wynn, Rep. Elijah Cummings

Clinton Key Endorsements:
Gov. Martin O’Malley, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger

Latest polls:
Obama up by 22

Prediction:
Obama by 25 (+19 delegates)

Obama Key Endorsements:
Gov. Timothy Kaine, Fmr. Gov. Douglas Wilder, Atty. Gen. Douglas Ganster, Rep. Robert Scott, Rep. Jim Moran, Rep. Rick Boucher

Clinton Key Endorsements:
None

Latest polls:
Obama up by 18

Prediction:
Obama by 20 (+15 delegates)