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Obama warns me against overconfidence, gets ignored

By Griffin · October 16th, 2008 · 1 Comment

At a fundraiser in New York today, Barack Obama warned supporters not to let his insurmountable advantage in the polls, the money race, the ground game, the air wars, the current political dynamic, the shifting American demographics, and the electoral college go to our heads:

“For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire,” Obama said.

And for those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I have two words of my own for you: It’s over.

Sorry, Barack.  I know you read my post yesterday on the overwhelming overness of this race and decided to pull on the reins a little, but even the most die-hard Republicans are beginning to come to grips with reality.  Here’s Redstate contributor Brad Smith revealing to the right-wing of the Republican base that there is no Santa Claus (the post was later removed by Redstate censors):

Let’s be brutally honest. Barack Obama is going to win the presidential election, and probably by a lot. We’ll avoid recriminations and “I told you so”s and second guessing here. Let’s just face the reality. Obama is trading at 84 on in-trade. Overnight quickie polls show the public overwhelmingly thinks Obama won last night’s debate – which probably has less to do with any “objective” scoring and more to do with the fact that folks have simply decided to vote for Obama. Obama has more cash than McCain and independent groups are spending more in his support than they are in favor of McCain. Obama’s national lead is in double digits in many polls, and per Real Clear Politics, Obama leads in every – that’s EVERY, as in all – battleground states. His leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, even Colorado, Virginia, and Florida, are all outside the margin of error.

So Barack Obama is the next president of the United States, and the Democrats will gain seats in the House and the Senate.  At this point, it is imperative that the Republicans maintain a filibuster-capable Senate minority. The Democrats now have about a one in three chance of picking up the 60 or more Senate seats they would need to prevent filibusters.

It is not quite right to say that every nickle spent by the Republican National Committee in support of Senator McCain is a waste, because McCain’s performance will still help downticket races. But the RNC – and individual donors – need to concentrate remaining resources not on Senator McCain’s race for president, but on shoring up endangered Senate Republicans. We need to help Norm Coleman in Minnesota, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, Roger Wicker in Mississippi. Even Saxby Chambliss in Georgia and Mitch McConnell in potentially in danger, and Chuck Schumer is pouring money into Kentucky to try to take down the Minority Leader. It may be too late to help John Sununu in New Hampshire, Gordon Smith in Oregon, or Bob Schaeffer in Colorado, but they’re all in much better position than the McCain campaign. It’s even worth trying to save Ted Stevens in Alaska – we’re going to need every vote. 41 Senate seats will be the only meaningful check on Pelosi, Reid, and Obama for the next four years.

I know it’s tough for people to give up on the presidential. But there is a point at which you have to seriously look at the evidence, and save what can still be saved. The RNC needs to shift its focus to the Senate, and the McCain campaign should likewise shift its focus to those states where a stronger McCain effort can help some of these endangered Republicans keep their seats.

This pretty much echoes all of my points exactly, right down to the fact that the presidential race is no longer about who will be president but about the margin of Obama’s victory and how many Democrats will ride his coattails into Congress.  Right now, the only word that matters is this: ”landslide.”  That’s why Republicans won’t stop fighting and why Democrats shouldn’t either.  But as for president, yes, Barack, it’s safe to start picking out curtains for the Oval Office.

Tags: Barack Obama · Democrats

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