1.) He collects Spider-Man and Conan the Barbarian comics

I’ve seen the first two Spider-Man movies, and my favorite late night talk show host is Conan O’Brien.  We’re off to a good start.

2.) He was known as “O’Bomber” at high school for his skill at basketball

Even given the fact that he’s got an inch or two on me and played high school ball, I’m 99% sure I could take him one-on-one.  After all, he is 47 years old.  At that age, guys usually have a repertoire of five or six moves that are all technically traveling.  I don’t care if he is the president, I’d call him on it every time.  I’d also help him come up with a better nickname.  O’Bomber sounds like an Irish terrorist.  How about Ted ”The Unobama” Kaczynski?  Nah, that’s not much better.

3.) His name means “one who is blessed” in Swahili

I just looked it up, and “Griffin” means “hooked nose” in Latin.  Which sounds disappointing until you consider this: “In Greek mythology and medieval legend, the Gryphon was a fierce creature with the foreparts of an eagle (hence the hooked nose) and the hindquarters of a lion.”  I’m pretty sure Griffins ate a lot of people who thought they were blessed for dinner, which puts my name higher up on the food chain than “Barack,” which officially makes it better.

4.) His favourite meal is wife Michelle’s shrimp linguini

I bet his favorite meal is actually something his mom used to cook, but he’s way too smart to ever say that.

5.) He won a Grammy in 2006 for the audio version of his memoir, Dreams From My Father

Better than that, he beat out Bill Clinton’s audio book for it.

6.) He is left-handed – the sixth post-war president to be left-handed

What’s even more impressive is that he’s the very first African-American president to be left-handed.  Just a little obscure presidential trivia for you.

7.) He has read every Harry Potter book

I got halfway through the first Lord of the Rings book and quit.  More out of just not wanting to be the guy who reads Lord of the Rings books than anything else.

8.) He owns a set of red boxing gloves autographed by Muhammad Ali

I watched the first season of The Contender religiously.  Then they moved it to ESPN, got rid of Sly Stallone, and basically ruined it.

9.) He worked in a Baskin-Robbins ice cream shop as a teenager and now can’t stand ice cream

I worked at a mall as a teenager and now can’t stand shopping.  True story.

10.) His favourite snacks are chocolate-peanut protein bars

150+ years ago, peanuts were a dominant American industry, fueled by the labor of black slaves.  Now peanuts are just the crunchy filler in a black president’s post-workout snack routine.  Take that, peanuts.

11.) He ate dog meat, snake meat, and roasted grasshopper while living in Indonesia

Probably just one of those weird coincidences, but every single one of those things makes me want to throw up.

12.) He can speak Spanish

I know how to ask where the library is.

13.) While on the campaign trail he refused to watch CNN and had sports channels on instead

CNN is like a 24-hour-a-day Entertainment Tonight.  They somehow manage to stretch an hour of daily news into a full day by spending 90% of the airtime previewing the news they’re going to show you after the commercial break.

14.) His favourite drink is black forest berry iced tea

My favorite drink– via Jamba Juice– also sounds really, really gay.

15.) He promised Michelle he would quit smoking before running for president – he didn’t

I think John McCain would’ve gotten a lot of traction with this line of attack: ”Senator Obama’s campaign is fueled by nicotine and broken marital promises.”

16.) He kept a pet ape called Tata while in Indonesia

I kept a pet goldfish I named after my favorite Ninja Turtle.  Sadly, Michelangelo passed after a short two-week bout with living in a child’s fishbowl.

17.) He can bench press an impressive 200lbs

Bush, on the other hand, maxxes out at 185.  Oh, yes, America is back.

18.) He was known as Barry until university when he asked to be addressed by his full name

I was known as Griffy until university when I earned a ph.D. in Awesomology, converted briefly to Islam, was knighted by the Queen of England for some reason, and asked to be addressed by my full name: Sir Dr. Griffin Hussein Ohyeah!

19.) His favourite book is Moby-Dick by Herman Melville

This is where Barack and I part ways.  I don’t like Moby, Dick, or Moby Dick.  Dick Cheney, I mean.  What were you thinking?

20.) He visited Wokingham, Berks, in 1996 for the stag party of his half-sister’s fiancé, but left when a stripper arrived

I don’t have any good stripper stories either.

21.) His desk in his Senate office once belonged to Robert Kennedy

My desk at work has a coffee stain on it that looks like Scooter Libby.

22.) He and Michelle made $4.2 million (£2.7 million) last year, with much coming from sales of his books

I plan to make $4.2 million next year, with much of it coming from sales of my face on billboards.

23.) His favourite films are Casablanca and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest

If Obama had that Facebook app that compares your movie interests to your friends, our compatibility would be at least 50% right now.

24.) He carries a tiny Madonna and child statue and a bracelet belonging to a soldier in Iraq for good luck

Won’t win him too many votes among the New York Yankee wives crowd.  Or the pretentious British filmmaker crowd.

25.) He applied to appear in a black pin-up calendar while at Harvard but was rejected by the all-female committee.

This is hands down the funniest fun fact ever about Barack Obama.  I can’t decide whether it’s because he applied to appear in a pin-up calendar or because he was rejected.  Trying is funny, but so is failing.

26.) His favourite music includes Miles Davis, Bob Dylan, Bach and The Fugees

I’d totally ask to borrow his iPod and then never give it back.

27.) He took Michelle to see the Spike Lee film Do The Right Thing on their first date

On Election Day, I painted Obama’s hope logo on a bunch of trash cans in my neighborhood, just in case.  They weren’t needed.

28.) He enjoys playing Scrabble and poker

He only enjoys those games because he’s never played me.

29.) He doesn’t drink coffee and rarely drinks alcohol

Guess he’s too busy drinking black forest berry iced teas.

30.) He would have liked to have been an architect if he were not a politician

I would have liked to have been an alien robot that turns into a Toyota Prius if I were not a blogger.  My name would be Douchebagimus Prime.

31.) As a teenager he took drugs including marijuana and cocaine

As a teenager, I once tried to eat three Big Macs in a row to impress my friends.  I failed, and my friends weren’t impressed.  That’s the downside of teenage peer pressure no one ever talks about.

32.) His daughters’ ambitions are to go to Yale before becoming an actress (Malia, 10) and to sing and dance (Sasha, 7)

Why would Malia want to go to a second-rate school like Yale when both her parents are Harvard alum?  She’s young, she’ll learn.

33.) He hates the youth trend for trousers which sag beneath the backside

I hate the word “trousers.”  And the word “backside.”  Really, the only word that’s saving that sentence is “sag.”  Sag, sag, sag.  Good word.

34.) He repaid his student loan only four years ago after signing his book deal

I really, really hope this will be a fun fact about me four years from now.

35.) His house in Chicago has four fire places

I’d settle for one.  House, I mean.

36.) Daughter Malia’s godmother is Jesse Jackson’s daughter Santita

I’m distantly related to Michael Jackson through marriage.  Sort of.  True story.  Sort of.

37.) He says his worst habit is constantly checking his BlackBerry

My worst habit is never checking my e-mail.  Go ahead, e-mail me and see if I’m lying.

38.) He uses an Apple Mac laptop

Elitist!!!

39.) He drives a Ford Escape Hybrid, having ditched his gas-guzzling Chrysler 300

That’s some outstanding automobile pandering right there.

40.) He wears $1,500 (£952) Hart Schaffner Marx suits

Marxist!!!

41.) He owns four identical pairs of black size 11 shoes

Why can’t Obama close the deal with white shoes?

42.) He has his hair cut once a week by his Chicago barber, Zariff, who charges $21 (£13)

I think it’s time for Zariff to ask for a raise.  Or a reality show.

43.) His favourite fictional television programmes are Mash and The Wire

I hate the way British people spell.  Love The Wire though.

44.) He was given the code name “Renegade” by his Secret Service handlers

As up as Barack is on hip-hop, there’s no doubt in my mind he got this name from the Jay-Z and Eminem song from a few years back.  Also, last year, he kind of let it slip to a supporter on a rope line that he listens to Eminem, before catching himself mid-sentence (“…although he curses sometimes.”).  And seeing as how Barack is a writer, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have a few verses of his own tucked away in a drawer somewhere.  Coolest.  President.  Ever.

45.) He was nicknamed “Bar” by his late grandmother

That reminds me of an old joke.  Okay, so two presidential candidates– a former first lady and a former POW– walk into a Bar.  They lose.

46.) He plans to install a basketball court in the White House grounds

To be torn down immediately in 2016 by President Jindal.

47.) His favourite artist is Pablo Picasso

Cubist sympathizer!!!

48.) His speciality as a cook is chilli

Remember that episode of The Simpsons when Homer entered a chili cook-off and ate that super hot Guatemalan chilli pepper and then went on a hallucinogenic journey to find his soul mate?  That was a great episode.

49.) He has said many of his friends in Indonesia were “street urchins”

I went through a phase as a kid where I watched Aladdin every day for, like, a month.

50.) He keeps on his desk a carving of a wooden hand holding an egg, a Kenyan symbol of the fragility of life

I keep on my desk a bottle of water, an American symbol of putting capitalism and convenience before environmental concerns.  I also drink from it when I’m thirsty.  It’s really convenient.

51.) His late father was a senior economist for the Kenyan government

How’d his father get an important government job like that with a name like Barack Hussein Obama, Sr.?

Al-Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri is criticizing Barack Obama in a new message, calling him a demeaning racial term implying that the president-elect is a black American who does the bidding of whites.

Al-Zawahri says in an audio message, which appeared on militant Web sites Wednesday, that Obama is “the direct opposite of honorable black Americans” like Malcolm X. He calls Obama a “house negro.”

American Prospect has labeled this “Al-Qaeda’s Most Epic Fail Ever.“  Joe Klein and Richard Clarke think it’s a telltale sign of how badly an Obama presidency has already knocked Al-Qaeda off its game.  The New Republic wonders how Al-Qaeda missed the conservative wingnut memo that Obama is actually Malcolm X’s illegitimate love child.

But the question has to be asked: what exactly is Al-Qaeda trying to accomplish here?  Are they trying to erode Obama’s support in Africa by playing the “He’s not black enough” card?  (That’s so 2007.) Are they trying to rally hard-working Iraqis, white Iraqis against the new Obama administration?  (The media likes to refer to them as “blue-collar” Iraqis, but we know who they’re talking about.)  Are they trying to provoke some kind of racial response-in-kind from Obama himself?  (Something his political opponents have collectively failed to do for a decade.)  Or are they just trying to secure a guest spot on the Sean Hannity Show?  (Take a number and get in line behind the rest of the anti-Semites.)

Whatever the reason, if Al-Qaeda wants to keep its spot as public enemy number one, they’re really going to have to stop embarrassing themselves like this.  Stick to the Great Satan stuff.  It was working for you.  Leave the race-baiting to the Clintons.

But like I said, thinking about this over the past couple days, I’ve really started to hate the idea of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.  First of all, a lot of Obama’s primary campaign support came from Democrats who wanted to keep the Clintons as far away from the White House as possible.  But now he’s voluntarily bringing both of them, along with their unbridled ambition, their penchant for backbiting, and all of Bill’s undisclosed foreign donors into the heart of his administration.  If there is a major scandal that brings down Obama in 2012, I can easily see it coming from Clinton’s State Department.

As for the Team of Rivals concept Obama keeps talking about, according to political science professor Stephen Teles, that may be a misreading of history:

I am not at all sure that I understand Obama’s reasoning in considering HRC for Secretary of State, but my gut tells me that we may be seeing an instance where politicians get in trouble through the misplaced use of historical analogy, in this case the “team of rivals.” Abraham Lincoln really had to have a highly inclusive cabinet because: a) the Republican party was still not a completely institutionalized entity, and to keep it together in its first shot at power Lincoln needed all the major figures in the party to be represented and; b) the country was at war–a real war–and that almost always calls for inclusivity, even to the point of having governments of national unity. Neither of these factors apply in this case. Obama has massively more control over the Democratic party than Lincoln did, and while we are in an economic crisis, it’s not nearly as bad as the Civil War or WWII. So the conditions that necessitated a “team of rivals” don’t apply. I’m increasingly wondering if this will turn out to be a “circular firing squad of rivals.”

Not to mention the fact that Americans overwhelmingly voted for undivided government.  Butting heads is fine up to a point, as long as all those heads are pointed in the same general direction.  With Clinton, nobody knows where her head is at, as it tends to change frequently, dramatically, and without warning, depending on the circumstances.  Teles goes on to voice more of my concerns about a potential Secretary of State Clinton:

[F]rankly, I just don’t trust Hillary. There is no evidence based on the historical record that she is a competent manager (and plenty of evidence to the contrary–her campaign and the Clinton health care process are only two examples), or has the best interest of our chief executive at heart. So given that the structural conditions that necessitate a “team of rivals” approach don’t apply, I find the argument for this idea extremely weak.

And that’s really what this all comes down to: Does Obama trust Hillary Clinton?  Does he trust her to be the competent manager that she has yet– in 35 years of public service– to show herself to be?  Does he trust her not to say one thing to his face and then do her own thing behind the scenes?

Again, the politics of this are brilliant.  The move singlehandedly caucus blocks Hillary’s presidential ambitions for the next eight years and moves her and her camp– who might otherwise take it upon themselves to lead the criticism against the White House– firmly into the Obama tent.  And it puts the Clinton brand– still beloved around the world– back on American foreign policy.  But in practice, it could turn into an unmitigated disaster.  I have a feeling that this decision will be seen as the first real turning point of Obama’s first term.  Clinton will either be a spectacular success or a spectacular failure.  There’s likely no middle ground here.

The host predicted that President Obama would have a miserable term and face a challenge from within his own party in 2012, likely from Hillary Clinton. “You watch,” he said. “In a year, the Clintons will orchestrate a campaign to declare this a failed Presidency.”

Another guest, a trader and market strategist who had voted for Ralph Nader, agreed about 2012, but according to a different logic. He expounded on a belief he held regarding the cycles of history and the markets. … According to pi-cycle theory, after a failed attempt at a rally between now and next spring, the market will not hit bottom until June, 2011, so Obama may be doomed to muddle through a deepening recession and the unpopularity that comes with it, and whoever succeeds him in 2012, should he lose, will then have the chance to ride the recovery—to be, in the public’s untrained eye, the transformative F.D.R. or Ronald Reagan that people dearly want Obama to be now.

I tend to agree that things are going to get worse before they get better.  It’ll take Obama at least past the midterms in 2010 to start seeing some tangible economic results from everything he’ll be doing to dig us out of Bush’s hole.

What better way to defuse a potential threat from the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party than by making Hillary Clinton your main international spokesperson?  As Secretary of State, neither she nor Bill Clinton would be able to even hint at discontent within the party.  Much as Colin Powell didn’t go public with his concerns about the Iraq War until well after Bush broke everything in Pottery Barn, Hillary Clinton would also not deviate from her role as the good soldier.  And for a sitting Secretary of State to mount a run against the incumbent president would be logistically impossible (she would have to resign first, and do it within the first two years to begin building the necessary support).  Obama would essentially be neutralizing the greatest threat from within his own party until 2016.

Who else is going to challenge him in 2012?  John Edwards?  Dennis Kucinich?  Mike Gravel?

UPDATE: Nico Pitney at HuffPo is reporting that Obama offered Clinton the Secretary of State position in Chicago yesterday.  I had a feeling the fact that Obama’s interest in her was leaked at all meant the story was real.  Politically, it’s a brilliant move, whether she accepts the offer or not.  On the merits though, I’d rather have John Kerry or Bill Richardson running the State Department.  All the arguments I made in the primary season against Clinton’s foreign policy credentials and managerial skills– or lack thereof– still stand.

But she’ll be at least adequate in the position, if not surprisingly better, and the value of so explicitly putting the Clinton brand back on American foreign policy can’t be overstated.  There’s really no clearer way to say to the world, “The America you once knew and loved is indeed back in business.”

The most entertaining take on today’s news comes from Tom Bevan at RealClearPolitics, who earlier today– before news of the offer was reported by HuffPo– strongly criticized what he called “an obsessive political press corps” for jumping on the Clinton rumors in a post titled “The Silly Season Continues.”  Again, this was written today:

Just how desperate for news is an obsessive political press corps now trying to find its way after one of the biggest elections in history? Exhibit A is the mindless speculation that Hillary Clinton is being considered for Secretary of State, a story that’s now been picked up by just about everybody.

We don’t know where this nugget of information came from or whether it’s legitimate, but in today’s media environment – especially on matters such as cabinet appointments and the like – things like accuracy and solid sourcing are irrelevant.  All we know for sure is that Hillary Clinton is in Chicago today.

Oops.

Gibbs and Axelrod will be going to the White House. Plouffe might replace Howard Dean as the new DNC chair.

And a must-read article in the New Yorker on the inner workings of the Obama campaign reveals that Barack Obama is Michael Jordan:

Patrick Gaspard, the campaign’s political director, said that when, in early 2007, he interviewed for a job with Obama and Plouffe, Obama said that he liked being surrounded by people who expressed strong opinions, but he also said, “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.” After Obama’s first debate with McCain, on September 26th, Gaspard sent him an e-mail. “You are more clutch than Michael Jordan,” he wrote. Obama replied, “Just give me the ball.”

Obama told reporters that he has turned for advice to all “living” former presidents. But he then joked, “I didn’t want to get into a Nancy Reagan thing about, you know, doing any seances.” … Obama called Mrs. Reagan late Friday to apologize.

And then when discussing what kind of dog to get for his children:

“Obviously, a lot of shelter dogs are mutts like me,” Obama said with a smile. “So whether we’re going to be able to balance those two things, I think, is a pressing issue on the Obama household.”  In his first postelection news conference, the man who will be president in just over two months described himself as a mutt as casually as he may have poked fun at his jump shot.

I have to be honest, even in jest, both these comments were a little disappointing to hear and came off as almost beneath the office– which isn’t easy after eight years of George Bush.  I guarantee neither would have been said a week ago.  After two years of ferociously protecting Michelle and arguing that wives should be off limits, Obama’s joke at the expense of Nancy Reagan, one of only six living first ladies, was inexplicable.  Calling her to apologize was the right thing to do.  And I’m all for Obama doing all he can to shed the stigma of race, but for the new president-elect to describe himself as a “mutt” strikes me as a bit careless.  It’s only a matter of time before some foreign leader decides to jokingly quote Obama and finds him or herself in a world of hot water.

I realize that if Obama can’t joke around a little every now and then, it’s going to be a long, long four years.  No one is expecting him to come out in a robe, smoking a pipe and quoting Shakespeare.  But just because the election is over doesn’t mean he should lose the rhetorical cautiousness that got him this far and earned him the confidence of so many voters.  At least not in the very first press conference.

Snerdley, do you remember we had a survey not long ago about unmarried women, women that are not in a relationship are stupider than women who are in a relationship?  Remember that?  It was not the word, but what was the word?  I use the word stupid because it worked.  Less informed, ignorant, whatever.  Get this.  “Unmarried Women Put Obama Over the Top.”  Seventy percent of support for Obama came from unmarried women.

I can hardly believe this guy’s been divorced three times.  What is wrong with you women?

A) Single out African-Americans as the sole reason why gay marriage was repealed, ignoring all other factors, including the Mormon Church who created and funded Prop 8 and the other non-black 90% of the electorate who also voted in favor of it.

B) Launch racist attacks that harken back to a time when blacks were viewed as naturally inferior to, or at least intellectually different than, other races, using words like “instinctive.”

C) Attack the Christian faith of African-Americans by invoking slavery.

Like I said, maybe it’s just me, but that actually seems like the stupidest, most counterproductive way anyone could possibly react to Tuesday’s result.  I understand a lot of people in the gay and liberal communities are angry right now, and rightfully so.  But to react by throwing verbal trash cans through the windows of black churches and communities is not the answer at all.

Earlier today, a Daily Kos contributor, who happens to be both black and gay, wrote a fascinating post on the reasons why people need to stop scapegoating the black community for Prop 8.  The two best reasons:

– It isn’t even clear that the exit polls people are using to ”prove” overwhelming black support of Prop 8 (and by proxy, black homophobia) are accurate.  African-Americans made up just 10% of California’s electorate on Tuesday– compared to 63% white, 18% Latino.  With CNN’s tiny sample size of only 224 African-Americans throughout the entire state, the figure showing 70% of African-Americans supporting Prop 8 could easily be off by a very large percentage, depending on where in California those selected African-Americans lived.  A swing of just 22 black voters in that statewide sample– easily possible if too much of your sample is coming from conservative inland communities– changes the support from 70% to 60%.

– Even if African-Americans had opposed Prop 8 at the same percentage as whites, it wouldn’t have made a difference.  There was just too much support for it from the rest of the non-black electorate.  For every one black voter who voted in favor of Prop 8, there were six white and Latino voters who did the same.  So why– other than racism and frustration– single out the black voter for blame?

If gays and liberals want to find someone to blame for the passage of Proposition 8, there are a few much better options: the Mormon Church, as I mentioned; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome, whose arrogant pro-gay-marriage rants starred in several Yes on 8 commercials, and who blew open the issue of gay marriage being taught in schools by foolishly officiating a gay wedding in front of a class of first-graders; Barack Obama, who opposed Prop 8, but made (probably wisely for his campaign) no real effort to make that fact known to the 61% of Californians who voted for him.

And of course, there’s the gay and liberal communities themselves, who refused to put a human face on the issue or an actual gay couple in any of their ads.  In fact, most No on 8 ads didn’t even use the word “gay” or any variation of it.  It was as if Prop 8 was a civil rights issue, a separation of church and state issue, a marriage issue, but definitely not a “gay” or ”homosexual” issue.  But as long as gay marriage supporters continue operating in this mode of subconscious shame, I suspect gay marriage opponents will continue to feel vindicated in their belief that homosexuality is something to be ashamed of.

Lastly, the gay and liberal community needs to realize that the black community is operating at unprecedented levels of goodwill and open-mindedness right now.  A lot of African-Americans got their minds changed dramatically on Tuesday night about whites, racism, and their place in America.  So rather than using this time to attack that community, now is probably more like the perfect time to begin positive outreach and education efforts.  On the other hand, if these attacks continue, they will almost certainly lead to a knee-jerk defensiveness throughout a black community that is accustomed to being disproportionately and unfairly blamed for so many other issues– a wound that could take years to heal.  And the absolute last thing gay marriage supporters need to be doing right now is making more enemies.

– I am absolutely exhausted, physically and emotionally drained.  And I only do this part-time.  I think there’s a serious case of blogger burnout going around the entire political blogosphere right now.  Sites that normally update two or three times an hour have been barely twitching since Tuesday night.  It’s like finishing a marathon and just collapsing on the pavement, unable to take another single step.  I’m glad I’m not the only one.

– So when did I start celebrating? Ohio. Obama got an early, pretty much immediate call in Pennsylvania, and that was a very encouraging sign. But Ohio was the first Bush state he flipped. At that point, McCain had no path to 270. And that’s when I started making phone calls.

– I said if Obama won just two out of the following four states, he would be president: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. He won all four.

– Wow, what a speech.  Obama’s speechwriter Jon Favreau is quickly turning into the Ted Sorenson of our generation.  Best line:

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there.

Echoes of Martin Luther King’s final sermon there.  I also loved the extended Ann Nixon Cooper story, punctuated by this:

So tonight, let us ask ourselves – if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

– Watching the events of Tuesday night unfold– especially the moment the graphic flashed on the screen that said Barack Obama had been elected President of the United States and the cut to the roaring crowds– I can only recall one other day in my life where I felt like I was having a sort of out-of-body “Am I watching a movie here or is this actually happening in the United States right now?” experience: September 11, 2001.

– Best comment of the night belonged to Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo shortly after the race turned into a landslide, mocking the Clintons and the pundits (*cough!* PatBuchanan! *cough!*): “Why can’t Obama close the deal?”

– Best headline Wednesday morning belonged to the Newark, New Jersey Star-Ledger: “Obama Reaches the Mountaintop.” Runner-up, The Anniston Star in Alabama: “In Our Lifetime” (FYI I spent most of the day yesterday downloading front pages from around the world at Newseum).

– Not that anyone is counting, but here’s just one more reason why you want to take me to Vegas.  If the results in North Carolina and Missouri hold, I will have picked 49 of 50 states correctly.  The lone miss:

Missouri in the Obama column is the prediction I’m most worried about.  I think the vote there might look like it did on Super Tuesday, when the state was originally called for Hillary Clinton but was eeked out at the end by Obama.

John McCain leads there by less than 6,000 votes.  Here’s another look at the electoral map I predicted, proving once again that my raw gut instinct is in fact the most trusted name in news.

Slow blogging today, if any.  I thought about live-blogging the day, but I’d rather sit back and take it in.  There won’t be much to talk about until the results start coming in anyway.  I’m of course going out to vote, I’ll be having lunch with my wife, we’ll get our free cup of Starbucks, and– depending on the lines– our free Krispy Kreme doughnut.  And then it’s nonstop television watching and furious Web surfing.  If anything major develops, I’ll more likely be on the phone with family than here.  So, in all likelihood, I’ll see you tomorrow.  Hopefully, America– and the world– will be a very different place then.

Sure, you could always wait until the networks call the election, but who wants to spend those extra four or five hours (or more) writhing in agony, while all the champagne gets warm?  Yesterday, I wrote this handy little shorthand guide:

If Obama wins just two of the following four states, it’s over: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, or Florida. If Obama wins just one, he can still be saved by holding serve in the west, winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, or by winning just one of those states plus North Carolina. If Obama somehow loses all four– Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida– hold onto your hat. He would then need the three Western states– Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada– plus North Carolina (which could easily happen), or the Western states plus Indiana and Missouri (a scenario that is unlikely if he’s already lost Midwestern voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio).

But Nate Silver at 538 is the man with the cold hard numbers.  He adds this: 

[T]here are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

As far as exact times go, Silver lays out what to watch for– and when– in a must-read article for Newsweek.  Indiana and Virginia appear to be the early bellwethers:

If for some reason [Indiana] is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that probably means we’re in for a long night. If, on the other hand, the state is called for Obama in the first hour after the polls close, that could indicate that the force of Obama’s field operation has been underestimated, and that McCain is in for a catastrophically poor evening.

…

Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election. … As Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia, what we’re really looking for is a quick call on anything before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has indeed changed from 2004, and not in McCain’s favor.

I’m predicting an electoral college landslide for Obama, so I think we get a surprise call on Florida a mere two hours after the polls close there– 9:00 p.m EST.  Obviously, Obama won’t have 270 at that point, and no one will officially call the election until some of the Western states start coming in.  But every path McCain has to 270 will be closed at that point.  To quote the great Tim Russert, the state to watch tomorrow night: “Florida, Florida, Florida.”

Barack Obama’s grandmother, whose personality and bearing shaped much of the life of the Democratic presidential contender, has died, Obama announced Monday, one day before the election. Madelyn Payne Dunham was 86.

Obama announced the news from the campaign trail in Charlotte, N.C. The joint statement with his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng said Dunham died late Sunday night after a battle with cancer.

“She’s gone home,” Obama said as tens of thousands of rowdy supporters at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte grew silent in an evening drizzle. “And she died peacefully in her sleep with my sister at her side.”

I’ve always felt blessed that both my grandmothers lived to attend my wedding– one just barely. Obama still has a grandmother in Kenya, but to lose the one who raised him one day before the election has to be devastating. Best wishes to him and his family.